![]() ![]() These models do not address economic incentives, changing farming practices, and adaptations such as breeding hardier crop varieties, although that is an area of active research. This study focused on climate change impacts. “What we're doing is driving crop simulations that are effectively growing virtual crops day-by-day, powered by a supercomputer, and then looking at the year-by-year and decade-by-decade change in each location of the world,” said Alex Ruane, co-director of the GISS Climate Impacts Group and a co-author of the study. By using multiple climate and crop models in various combinations, the researchers were more confident in their results. ![]() In the end, the team created about 240 global climate-crop model simulations for each crop. Each crop species’ behavior is based on their real life biological responses studied in indoor and outdoor lab experiments. The crop models simulate on a large scale how crops grow and respond to environmental conditions such as temperature, rainfall and atmospheric carbon dioxide, which are provided by the climate models. Then the research team used the climate model simulations as inputs for 12 state-of-the-art global crop models that are part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project ( AgMIP), an international partnership coordinated by Columbia University. Get NASA's Climate Change News: Subscribe to the Newsletter » These responses differ somewhat due to variations in their representations of the Earth's climate system. Each of the five CMIP6 climate models used for this study runs its own unique response of Earth’s atmosphere to greenhouse gas emission scenarios through 2100. First, they used climate model simulations from the international Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 ( CMIP6). To arrive at their projections, the research team used two sets of models. Credit: NASA/Katy Mersmann Download from NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio The change in yields is due to the projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, making it more difficult to grow maize in the tropics and expanding wheat’s growing range. ![]() Wheat, in contrast, may see an uptick in crop yields by about 17%. “A 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide.”Īverage global crop yields for maize, or corn, may see a decrease of 24% by late century, with the declines becoming apparent by 2030, with high greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new NASA study. The projected maize response was surprisingly large and negative, he said. “We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,” said lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and The Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York City. These changes would make it more difficult to grow maize in the tropics, but could expand wheat’s growing range. Using advanced climate and agricultural models, scientists found that the change in yields is due to projected increases in temperature, shifts in rainfall patterns, and elevated surface carbon dioxide concentrations from human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. Maize crop yields are projected to decline 24%, while wheat could potentially see growth of about 17%. ![]() Lee este anuncio de prensa en español aqui.Ĭlimate change may affect the production of maize (corn) and wheat as early as 2030 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, according to a new NASA study published in the journal, Nature Food. Climate change may affect the production of maize (corn) and wheat as early as 2030, according to a new NASA study. ![]()
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